United States – Anti-Dumping Measures on Certain Shrimp and Diamond Sawblades from China: never ending zeroing in the WTO? / Dukgeun Ahn and Patrick Messerlin

Despite many legal rulings to clarify the WTO inconsistency of zeroing practices, in practically all aspects of antidumping proceedings, the United States declined to categorically rectify the illegal antidumping duties based on zeroing calculation methods. This dispute is merely example of a number of disputes where the US government had to exhaust the whole process for proper implementation of the WTO rulings under its domestic legal system. The US approach is starkly contrasted with the position taken by the European Union that categorically terminates zeroing practices pursuant to the WTO rulings. While the WTO system indeed recognizes individual Member’s peculiar regulatory systems and policies during implementation phases, the current situation in which WTO Members must individually resort to the dispute settlement system in order to rectify the US zeroing practices raises a serious concern regarding the legitimacy and integrity of the WTO dispute settlement system. Maybe it is time for WTO Members to agree on better implementation mechanisms before more Members try to develop overly burdensome and complicated regulatory processes for compliance.

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The Trade Effects of US Anti-dumping Actions against China Post-WTO Entry / Guobing Shen and Xiaolan Fu

Since China’s entry into the WTO, US anti-dumping (AD) actions against China have increased, particularly with respect to multiple petitions. Distinguishing between US single and multiple petitions, we examine the trade effects of US AD actions against China based on an unbalanced panel of quarterly trade data. The results show that a US single petition investigation greatly restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also causes more significant import diversion from non-named countries. In the short run, a preliminary AD duty imposed on China via a US multiple petition not only restrains US imports of the filed products from China but also prevents trade diversion from non-named countries. In the long run, a final AD duty on China resulting from a US multiple petition creates a larger destructive effect on China and causes US import diversion from non-named countries. Thus, a final AD duty imposed on China following a US multiple petition not only harms China’s exports but also fails to help the US achieve import substitution. Furthermore, we have been able to reveal the negative trade effect of a preliminary AD duty even in cases where the ultimate decision is not to impose a final duty.

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Evaluating Aid for Trade: A Survey of Recent Studies / Olivier Cadot … [et al.]

The demand for accountability in ‘Aid-for-Trade’ (AFT) is increasing but monitoring has focused on case studies and impressionistic narratives. The paper reviews recent evidence from a wide range of studies, recognising that a multiplicity of approaches is needed to learn what works and what does not. The review concludes that there is some support for the emphasis on reducing trade costs through investments in hard infrastructure (like ports and roads) and soft infrastructure (like customs). But failure to implement complementary reform – especially the introduction of competition in transport services – may erode the benefits of these investments. Direct support to exporters does seem to lead to diversification across products and destinations, but it is not yet clear that these benefits are durable. In general, it is difficult to rely on cross-country studies to direct AFT. More rigorous impact evaluation is an under-utilised alternative, but situations of ‘clinical interventions’ in trade are rare and adverse incentives (due to agency problems) and costs (due to the small size of project) are a hurdle in implementation.

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Aid to the Services Sector: Does it Affect Manufacturing Exports? / Esteban Ferro, Alberto Portugal-Perez and John S. Wilson

Abstract:
The authors evaluated the impact of foreign aid to five services sectors (transportation, information and communications technologies (ICT), energy, banking/financial services, and business services) on exports of downstream manufacturing sectors in developing countries. To address the reverse causality between aid and exports, they relied on an original identification strategy that exploits (i) the variation of aid flows to services sectors and (ii) the variation of service intensities across industrial sectors and countries using input–output data. They found a positive effect of aid to services, in general, on downstream manufacturing exports of developing countries across regions and income-level groups.

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Aid for Trade: Do Those Countries that Need it, Get it? / Elisa Gamberoni and Richard Newfarmer

This paper is designed to help both the beneficiary governments and donors of aid for trade identify countries that are under-performing in trade and which are receiving less aid for trade than their global performance might otherwise suggest is necessary. Building on previous work, it provides a procedure to assess potential need for spurring trade volume, and then looks at country allocations of aid for trade to see which are receiving below-average amounts in the supply of aid for trade – relative to their potential needs. Countries, as they design national development strategies, may wish to consider giving greater attention to trade and requesting that donors allocate to them more aid for trade. As part of the analysis, the paper provides a conceptual framework for selecting indicators of trade performance and its policy determinants that the WTO and its partners might monitor closely as part of the aid for trade initiative.

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Aid for Trade Effectiveness: Complementarities with Economic Integration / Mariana Vijil

Abstract:
Developing countries are increasingly using regional integration as a main policy lever when pursuing a trade-led growth strategy, and today, ‘deep’ preferential trade agreements go beyond trade policy negotiations and cover trade facilitation issues. Since aid for trade (AfT) has been recognised as a powerful instrument for increasing developing countries’ trade capacity by targeting internal trade costs, this article tests whether complementarities exist between this type of aid and economic integration using a gravity model on panel data for the period 1995–2005. Results indicate that AfT, when combined with economic integration, has been effective in increasing trade flows. Both South–South and North–South trade flows have benefited, and the combination of the two instruments has been particularly effective in expanding the South’s exports to the North. Finally, when breaking down AfT into categories, assistance to trade-related institutions seems to generate the strongest complementarities with economic integration.

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Protection and Performance / Joseph Francois and Miriam Manchin

Abstract:
We examine the linkages between import policy and export performance, extending classic macroeconomic trade effects to more recent concepts from the modern literature on gravity models. We also examine these effects empirically with a panel of global and bilateral trade spanning 15 years. Our emphasis on the role of import policy (i.e. tariffs) of exporters as an explanation of trade volumes contrasts with the recent emphasis on importer policy in the gravity literature. It also reinforces the growing body of evidence on the importance of economic environmental (policy and infrastructure) conditions in explaining relative export performance and is in line with the literature on global value chains.

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