The precautionary principle and its approach to risk analysis and quarantine related to the trade of marine ornamental fishes in Brazil

The objective of this study was to employ the precautionary principle in import risk analysis (IRA) and quarantine in the trade of marine ornamental fishes (MOF). The analysis focused on the example of Brazil, as it imports and exports these fishes, in amounts that are globally significant. These processes, since their collection in nature, may expose the fish to stress, which may lead to the development of diseases. The legislation that regulates IRA and quarantine is derived from the Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply and Fisheries and Aquaculture. The quarantine of MOF in Brazil is not undertaken by government agencies, but by commercial establishments that are registered with the Ministries, and is way too short. According to the data obtained, the precautionary approach is not applied at all in this trade, as scientific information is not contemplated by the legislation, and law is not enforced.

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Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of trade fluctuates over the business cycle. First, I show that the extensive margin of exports to the U.S. and the extensive margin of imports from the U.S. are more volatile than the output of almost all trading partners. Next, I find that fixing exchange rates with the U.S. dollar, having a free trade agreement with the U.S., and an increase in country size is significantly associated with the stability of the pattern of trade with the U.S.

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Trade in goods and services

The indicator comprises sales of goods and services as well as barter transactions or goods exchanged as part of gifts or grants between residents and non-residents. It is measured in million USD and percentage of GDP for net trade and also annual growth for exports and imports.

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OECD: Trade in goods and services forecast

Trade in goods and services forecast is defined as the projected value of change in ownership of material resources and services between one economy and another. Projections are based on an assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy, using a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement. The indicator comprises net trade, imports and exports and export market growth. Net trade is the value of exports minus the value of imports; imports and exports are the value of goods and services imported or exported from other economies; export market growth measures the demand for a country’s exports constructed as a weighted average of import growth in all export destinations using export shares as weights. This indicator is measured in USD for net trade and in USD, 2010 prices for exports, imports and export market growth.

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Input-trade liberalization, export prices and quality upgrading

This paper explores the impact of input trade liberalization on imported input and exported product prices. Using Chinese transaction data for 2000–2006, we capture causal effects between exogenous input tariff reductions and within firm changes in HS6-traded product prices. For identification, we make use of a natural control group of firms that are exempted from paying tariffs. Both imported input and export prices rise. The effect on export prices is specific to firms sourcing inputs from developed economies and exporting output to high-income countries. Results are consistent with a scenario within which firms exploit the input tariff cuts to access high-quality inputs in order to quality-upgrade their exports.

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Aggregated and disaggregated import demand in China

This paper re-estimates both the aggregated and disaggregated import demand functions for China. We consider six groups of goods for the disaggregated imports based on the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). The empirical findings from the dynamic ordinary least squares and autoregressive distributed lag regressions indicate that there are positive effects of the domestic income on imports. Second, contrary to theory but in line with previous studies, we obtain negative coefficients for the real effective exchange rate—a real appreciation in the Renminbi (RMB) would reduce import demand. Third, the period of the great global recession is negatively associated with the import demand in China. Fourth, the perception of tail risk negatively affects demand for the aggregated imports and five of six groups for the disaggregated imports. Fifth, the exchange rate reform had a positive impact on the aggregated imports, but our estimations report mixed results for the disaggregated imports. Finally, our results indicate that there is no aggregation bias for import demand in China.

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Trade, import competition and productivity growth in the food industry

Melitz and Ottaviano’s (2008) firm-heterogeneity model predicts that trade liberalization induces a selection process from low to high productivity firms, which translates to an industry productivity growth. A similar firms’ selection effect is induced by market size. In this paper, these predictions are tested across 25 European countries and 9 food industries, over the 1995–2008 period. Using different dynamic panel estimators we find strong support for the model predictions, namely that an increase in import penetration is systematically positively related to productivity growth. The results are robust to measurement issues in productivity, controlling for market size, country and sector heterogeneities, and for the endogeneity of import competition. Interestingly, this positive relationship is almost exclusively driven by competition in final products coming from developed (especially EU-15) countries suggesting that EU food imports are closer substitutes for domestic production than non-EU imports. These results have some potentially interesting policy implications.

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