World Bank Economic Review – Volume 29, Issue 1

Chinese Firms’ Entry to Export Markets: The Role of Foreign Export Spillovers
Optimal Food Price Stabilization in a Small Open Developing Country
Powering Up Developing Countries through Integration?
(Ineffective) Messages to Encourage Recycling: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Peru
Development at the Border: Policies and National Integration in CĂŽte D’Ivoire and Its Neighbors
Fiscal Responses after Catastrophes and the Enabling Role of Financial Development

Global Supply Chains and Trade Policy Responses to the 2008 Crisis

Using trade and protection data for seven large emerging market countries that have a history of active use of trade policy, the influence of these and other factors on trade policy responses to the 2008 crisis are empirically examined.

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Aid for food security: does it work?

The paper’s objective is to contribute to existing literature by examining whether development aid has any measurable impact on food security, whether the impact is conditioned on the quality of governance, and whether it differs based on the type of aid provided.
The paper finds that aid in general has a small positive impact on food security; that multilateral aid, grants, and social and economic aid have a positive effect on food security in their own right; and that bilateral aid, loans, and agricultural aid are more conditioned on the quality of governance that other aid.

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US and Chinese Strategic Trade Policies and Product Differentiation in the ASEAN Apple Market

ABSTRACT:
We investigate oligopolistic competition between US and Chinese apple exporters in the ASEAN market using strategic trade theory and the NEIO literature. We also analyze competition in the US and Chinese domestic markets. The US supplies higher quality apples to ASEAN than China, resulting in product differentiation. The results show that US exporters had a higher markup than Chinese exporters through the 1990s; however, as the share of Chinese apples expanded, the US markup declined and the Chinese markup increased dramatically. Competitive pricing prevails both in the US and Chinese domestic markets.

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Direction of Trade Statistics / International Monetary Fund – 12/2014

The Direction of Trade Statistics Online service provides data on the value of merchandise exports and imports between each country and all its trading partners. The database includes: total bilateral and multilateral exports and imports aggregated at national or regional group level.

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Subsidies, Clean Energy, and Climate Change

Estimates show that fossil fuel subsidies average USD 400–600 billion annually worldwide while renewable energy (RE) subsidies amounted to USD 66 billion in 2010 and are predicted to rise to USD 250 billion annually by 2035. Domestic political rationales for energy subsidies include promoting innovation, job creation and economic growth, energy security, and independence. Energy subsidies may also serve social and environmental goals. Whether and to what extent subsidies are effective to achieve these goals or instead lead to market distortions is a matter of much debate and the trade effects of energy subsidies are complex.

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Industrial Policy in High-Income Economies

This paper charts trends in industrial policy in high-income economies in the post-1945 period. Three distinct phases are identified. The first covers the post-war reconstruction period and extends to the end of the 1970s. Here, a number of governments took major initiatives in funding or supporting new or dynamic activities with the aim of catching up with the US in terms of productivity levels or in easing the adjustment of declining sectors. The second is from the start of the 1980s to around the mid-2000s. The more interventionist version of IP was abandoned in favour of policies of privatization, market liberalization, and competition. In the last ten years, attitudes have shifted. The current model in high-income economies at or close to the technology frontier is based on the premise that growth must be innovation-driven as this provides the basis for long-term competitiveness.

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Rethinking the Rules for Agricultural Subsidies

The Uruguay Round’s Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) categorized “domestic support” according to its presumed effect on trade. Subsidies that were deemed to be “trade distorting” were subject to limits specified in member schedules.

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Expectations and the Dynamic Feedback between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth

This paper seeks to analyze the dynamic feedback between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth – larger FDI promotes higher GDP, while higher GDP can be achieved with higher levels of FDI. We use panels and a sample of 19 Latin American countries to estimate a dynamic FDI and a dynamic GDP equation that jointly characterize the evolution of both variables. We find that the dynamics of GDP and FDI are mostly driven by the expectations. Shocks of GDP or FDI were found to play no role affecting the dynamics.

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Negociaciones post Bali sobre agricultura: el reto de la actualizaciĂłn de las normas globales de comercio

Post-Bali Negotiations on Agriculture: the Challenge of Updating Global Rules on Trade

Les nĂ©gociations sur l’agriculture aprĂšs Bali : le dĂ©fi de mise Ă  jour des rĂšgles internationales de commerce

En la presente nota informativa se resumen algunas de las conclusiones del libro electrĂłnico de ICTSD “Abordar la agricultura en el contexto post Bali: una colecciĂłn de ensayos breves”, editado por Ricardo MelĂ©ndez Ortiz, Christophe Bellmann y Jonathan Hepburn.
El libro se basa en el anålisis mås reciente de las tendencias globales y de las reformas de políticas domésticas a fin de informar sobre las negociaciones en una agenda de comercio agrícola post Bali.
Cuenta con una serie de documentos concisos, no técnicos y orientados a encontrar soluciones, redactados por los principales expertos y pensadores del sector, cubriendo sistemåticamente todos los åmbitos de las negociaciones agrícolas sobre acceso al mercado, ayuda interna y competencia de las exportaciones.

 

Texto en español

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Texte en français

Domestic Tobacco Regulation and International Law

For the most part, conflict between domestic tobacco regulation/international tobacco control instruments and international trade obligations is more imaginary than real. In practice, domestic regulation can be carried out consistently with trade obligations. Nevertheless, there is at least a small chance of actual conflict between international tobacco rules and trade obligations. Where such conflict arises, this paper argues that proper treaty interpretation requires that trade obligations, as the “harder” version of law, would take precedence over conflicting tobacco rules. For public health advocates who have concerns about this, the solution is not to exclude tobacco from trade agreements, but to refine existing trade obligations.

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Toward Free Trade in Sugar / Daniel R. Pearson

For decades, political support for the U.S. sugar program has been underpinned by the general sense that the costs of producing sugar in this country are quite high relative to prices prevailing in world markets. Thus, the elimination of government support would lead to the certain death of the sugar industry. Recent analysis indicates that this view simply is not correct. Rather, the U.S. industry would continue to produce sugar economically in the absence of government support.

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Changing power relations in the WTO

This review offers a critical reading of the November 2014 India–U.S. trade deal that unblocked an impasse in the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Doha round and considers what it means for the way we govern global trade. It argues that the agreement, rather than being a ‘victory’ for the developing world or a cause for celebration, may simply reinforce an unfair and problematic system of distributing trade opportunities among WTO members. It may also obscure further the need for a fundamental overhaul of the way global trade is governed. In so doing, the review speaks to broader debates about what happens when ‘rising’ powers replace established states in global institutions in the absence of wider processes of reform; and it adds to growing concerns about the increasing precariousness of least developed countries (LDCs) in international economic regimes.

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Dynamic estimation of the relationship between trade openness and output growth in Asia

This paper studies the relationship between trade openness and output growth for a sample of twenty-three Asian countries using both a static OLS and a dynamic ECM estimation models. At the country specific level, the findings of this study provide robust empirical evidence indicating that higher revealed trade openness is not the main engine explaining the Asian economic-growth miracle.

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Preferential Trade Agreements between Asymmetric Countries

This paper examines differences in welfare implications between a free trade area (FTA) and a customs union (CU) for member countries differing in their market sizes. In a stylized three-country model of trade under oligopoly, we take into account the conditions that FTA members set external tariffs to induce their exporting firms to comply with Rules of Origin (ROO) within the trade bloc.

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Revenue Substitution? How Foreign Aid Inflows Moderate the Effect of Bilateral Trade Pressures on Labor Rights

This paper investigates how foreign aid inflows moderate bilateral trade-based pressures on the exporting countries’ labor rights. Because aid provides additional resources to recipient governments, it reduces the importance aid-recipient governments attach to the preferences of their export partners. Consequently, aid inadvertently moderates the leverage exercised by importing countries on the governments of exporting, developing countries. Our analysis of a panel of 91 aid recipient countries for the period 1985–2002 lends support to the “revenue substitution” hypothesis. When aid levels are low, bilateral trade-based pressures are associated with improved labor rights. As aid levels rise, however, the effect loses significance.

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When trade stops: Lessons from the Gaza blockade 2007–2010

This paper uses detailed household expenditure and firm production data to study the welfare consequences of the blockade imposed on the Gaza Strip between mid-2007 and mid-2010. Using the West Bank as a counterfactual economy, we find that welfare declined by 14%–27%. Moreover, households with larger pre-blockade expenditure levels experienced larger welfare losses. We show that this large decline in welfare may be due to a combination of resource reallocation and reduced productivity. Workers were reallocated from manufacturing to services, and from industries that use imported inputs intensively, or export. In addition, labor productivity fell by 20% on average.

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Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market

The impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market.

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Trading Away Health: The Influence of Trade Policy on Youth Tobacco Control

Tobacco companies and tobacco-producing nations are exploiting international trade rules to block implementation of policies designed to curb youth smoking. These challenges represent a growing threat to tobacco control efforts, of which pediatricians should be made aware. Ongoing lawsuits and trade disputes, as well as contemporary trade agreements, challenge health principles by treating tobacco—a lethal and addictive product—the same as any other good. This article equips health care providers with the requisite vocabulary, history, and analysis to understand the impact of global trade practices on youth tobacco control.

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The impact of trade openness on growth: The case of Kenya

This paper investigates the effects of trade openness on the level of investment and the rate of economic growth in Kenya using annual time series data. The aggregate trade openness and trade-policy induced openness are evaluated. Controlling for a number of factors, aggregate trade openness is found to have positively affected the level of investment and the rate of economic growth, although the effect on the latter is statistically insignificant. On the other hand, we find trade-policy induced openness to have negatively and significantly affected investment and the rate of economic growth. Granger Causality tests suggest that a change in trade openness influences the long-term rate of economic growth through the interaction with physical capital growth in the case of Kenya.

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