New publications from OECD, late July 2018

New OECD publications have been uploaded to the OECD iLibrary, a comprehensive digital repository of books, papers, and statistics from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Titles recently added include:

These volumes and more are accessible from the OECD iLibrary by WTO staff and WTO Library patrons.

Export strengths and competitiveness of China and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe at the EU-15 market

The impact of the emergence of China as a global competitor on the trade performance of Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries at the EU-15 market.

Full-text available in .pdf

The precautionary principle and its approach to risk analysis and quarantine related to the trade of marine ornamental fishes in Brazil

The objective of this study was to employ the precautionary principle in import risk analysis (IRA) and quarantine in the trade of marine ornamental fishes (MOF). The analysis focused on the example of Brazil, as it imports and exports these fishes, in amounts that are globally significant. These processes, since their collection in nature, may expose the fish to stress, which may lead to the development of diseases. The legislation that regulates IRA and quarantine is derived from the Ministries of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply and Fisheries and Aquaculture. The quarantine of MOF in Brazil is not undertaken by government agencies, but by commercial establishments that are registered with the Ministries, and is way too short. According to the data obtained, the precautionary approach is not applied at all in this trade, as scientific information is not contemplated by the legislation, and law is not enforced.

Full-text available in .pdf

How important are exports for job growth in China? A demand side analysis

We analyze the impact of foreign demand on Chinese employment creation by extending the global input–output methodology introduced by Johnson and Noguera (2012). We find that between 1995 and 2001, fast growth in foreign demand was offset by strong increases in labor productivity and the net effect on employment was nil. Between 2001 and 2006, booming foreign demand added about 70 million jobs. These jobs were overridingly for workers with only primary education. Since 2006 growth in domestic demand for non-tradables has become more important for job creation than foreign demand, signaling a rebalancing of the Chinese economy.

Full-text available in .pdf

Exchange rate volatility and fluctuations in the extensive margin of trade

The existing evidence for exporters׳ entry and exit in response to exchange rate movements is based on either low frequency data or a sample with large devaluations. Using quarterly data of U.S. bilateral trade with 99 countries, this study provides new evidence that the extensive margin of trade fluctuates over the business cycle. First, I show that the extensive margin of exports to the U.S. and the extensive margin of imports from the U.S. are more volatile than the output of almost all trading partners. Next, I find that fixing exchange rates with the U.S. dollar, having a free trade agreement with the U.S., and an increase in country size is significantly associated with the stability of the pattern of trade with the U.S.

Full-text available in .pdf

Trade in goods and services

The indicator comprises sales of goods and services as well as barter transactions or goods exchanged as part of gifts or grants between residents and non-residents. It is measured in million USD and percentage of GDP for net trade and also annual growth for exports and imports.

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OECD: Trade in goods and services forecast

Trade in goods and services forecast is defined as the projected value of change in ownership of material resources and services between one economy and another. Projections are based on an assessment of the economic climate in individual countries and the world economy, using a combination of model-based analyses and expert judgement. The indicator comprises net trade, imports and exports and export market growth. Net trade is the value of exports minus the value of imports; imports and exports are the value of goods and services imported or exported from other economies; export market growth measures the demand for a country’s exports constructed as a weighted average of import growth in all export destinations using export shares as weights. This indicator is measured in USD for net trade and in USD, 2010 prices for exports, imports and export market growth.

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