Transatlantic trade and investment partnership: sectoral and macroeconomic perspectives for Germany, the EU and the US / Paul J. J. Welfens, Tony Irawan

Abstract :
The EU and the US have started negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) which could bring a considerable increase of exports and output as well as changes in the composition of output and employment. Thus export simulation studies in combination with input output analysis and employment analysis is useful. In the analysis presented the focus is mainly on sectoral output and employment effects where the key sectors are the automotive sector, chemical industry, information and communication technology production, pharmaceuticals and machinery and equipment. Backward sector links are analysed and found to be quite important in the automotive sector, the chemical industry, the machinery and equipment sector in both Germany and the US; in Germany also in ICT production. However, most of the observed sectors have weak forward linkage. Input output analysis is also used to identify employment effects in various sectors: the pure employment effect of a 20 % export expansion in Germany amounts to about 800 000 new jobs. Looking only at the US and German perspective turns out to be misleading—the high imports of intermediate inputs of German firms from EU partner countries suggests that a comparison EU-US is analytically required for some key issues and that considering the effects on EU partners is also useful. There is a host of key policy issues, including the issue of extended sustainability reporting.

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Transparency of Export Restricitions : A Checklist Promoting Good Practice / Barbara Fliess

The incidence of export taxes, prohibitions and other measures that raise export prices, limit export quantities or place conditions on exporting is on the rise. Transparency can help mitigate the negative effects of export restrictions by enabling affected stakeholders to better understand and anticipate policy change and adjust their activities. This paper develops a checklist of good practice in transparency which can serve as a tool for self-evaluation by governments and for promoting better and more consistent transparency practices in this area. The items of the checklist are drawn from norms and practices found in WTO and regional trade agreements and good governance guidelines. Additionally, feedback was sought through a small business survey. The list provides guidance with respect to such questions as what, when and how information about export restrictions governments ought to make public. It assembles relevant principles for keeping stakeholders and the general public informed at different stages of developing and implementing export restrictions and identifies information content for an effective information policy. Transparency moreover depends on the ease with which information can be obtained and on the extent to which stakeholders have an opportunity to make their views known when a measure is still on the drawing board.

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The Paradox of ‘Preferences’: Regional Trade Agreements and Trade Costs in Services / Sébastien Miroudot and Ben Shepherd

Abstract :
We analyse the relationship between regional trade integration and trade costs in services. The analysis relies on theory-consistent bilateral trade costs for 55 countries for 1999–2009 and an analysis of services commitments in 66 regional trade agreements to which these countries are parties. Despite the recent proliferation of services regional trade agreements (RTAs), we find that trade costs are only slightly lower due to these agreements. In addition, we find that the trade cost reductions that do take place tend to happen before the agreement is signed. This is consistent with countries using RTAs as a way of ‘locking in’ reforms. Finally, we find that the preferential margin of services RTAs is thin: members and non-members both see slightly lower trade costs when an RTA is signed. However, the difference between the member and non-member trade cost effects is 28 per cent for services and 40 per cent for goods, indicating a slimmer margin of preference in the former case. We discuss the possible explanations for these findings in terms of the nature of services RTAs and their relationship with regulatory reform. Based on these results, we argue that regionalism in the case of services seems relatively non-discriminatory and does not lead to substantial trade preferences.

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Inside U.S. Trade Vol. 32, No.1 – 23 May 2014

Some of the articles:

  • Obama-Abe Breakthrough Was U.S. Dropping Tariff Removal Demand: Sources
  • U.S. Tables Services Offer In TTIP; EU Holds Off Due To Lack Of Clearance
  • TPP Ministers Chart ‘Pathway’ Forward, But Show Few Signs Of Progress
  • TTIP Talks On GIs Focused On Comparing Systems, Not On EU GI List
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    The Trade Competitiveness of Southern Emerging Economies: A Multidimensional Approach Through Cluster Analysis / Pierluigi Montalbano and Silvia Nenci

    This paper investigates the trade competitiveness of the new emerging Southern economies – China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) – with respect to their main global partners. Starting from the commonly held view that countries with trade patterns similar to those of emerging countries are likely to suffer losses, we propose a multidimensional approach based on cluster analysis, both crisp and fuzzy, as an alternative strategy for assessing similarity in global trade patterns. On the basis of key trade characteristics drawn from the diverse strands of trade theory, we assess the relative position of CIBS within global trade patterns and their evolution over time. Unlike previous studies, our results do not support the hypothesis of the presence of a competitiveness threat from Southern emerging countries towards the main industrialised economies.

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    Trade Liberalisation: The Effects of Free Trade Agreements on the Competitiveness of the Dairy Sector / Catherine Couillard and Ekaterina Turkina

    Abstract :
    In recent years, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), free trade agreements (FTAs) in particular, have proliferated while WTO negotiations have stagnated. This paper contributes to the literature on trade liberalisation and the agricultural sector by analysing the effects of FTAs on the competitiveness of the dairy sector across 76 countries and over a 20-year period from 1990 to 2009. With a longitudinal econometric model, the results demonstrate that when a country has a revealed comparative advantage in the dairy sector, FTAs positively influence several indicators of competitiveness in the dairy sector, such as production, market share and trade balance. The results also indicate that multilateral FTAs are more beneficial than bilateral FTAs. There is strong empirical evidence that FTAs are more beneficial to developed countries than to developing countries. There is no statistical evidence to support the hypothesis about a relationship between FTAs and farm-gate price.

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