New publications from OECD, mid-November 2018

New OECD publications have been uploaded to the OECD iLibrary, a comprehensive digital repository of books, papers, and statistics from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Titles recently added include:

These volumes and more are accessible from the OECD iLibrary by WTO staff and WTO Library patrons.

Monetary easing policy and long-run food prices: Evidence from China

The money easing policy in the past decade incurred a significant impact on food prices through channels of both demand and supply, and leads to a problem of welfare distribution in China. Through the construction of a theoretical model, this paper empirically studies the impact of money supply on 7 major food products in China. We find that except for the price of rice which is stable and the price of wheat flour which slightly increases, all other food prices including soybean oil, poultry meat, pork, beef and mutton, decline in response to money expansion. This mainly results from a relatively larger stimulating effect of money expansion on supply to that on demand. The governments should make precautionary policies to protect farmers from welfare loss.

Full-text available in .pdf

Could the proposed WTO Special Safeguard Mechanism protect farmers from low international prices?

This article offers an empirical analysis of the proposal by some developing countries for an agricultural Special Safeguard Mechanism (SSM) in the World Trade Organization. It draws on political economy and market theory to demonstrate that the loss-averting domestic producer benefits that proponents believe the SSM would offer agricultural-importing developing countries may be illusory, insofar as agricultural-exporting countries also seek to avert producer losses.

Full-text available in .pdf

China Agricultural Economic Review, Volume 6, Issue 1

The latest “China Agricultural Economic Review is out now and the articles hereuner are accessible here in .pdf format.

Articles:

  • Steadying the ladder: China’s agricultural and rural development engagement in Africa / Kevin Z Chen, Claire Hsu, Shenggen Fan
  • Do China’s food safety standards affect agricultural trade? The case of dairy products / Dingqiang Sun, Jikun Huang, Jun Yang
  • How much did the return of rural migrant labor affect China’s national economy? /Xiaoyun Liu
  • An economy-wide analysis of impacts on Taiwan of reducing tariff escalation on agriculture-related products in WTO Doha Round Negotiations / Huey-Lin Lee, Ching-Cheng Chang, Yungho Weng, Sheng-Ming Hsu, Shih-Hsun Hsu, Yi-Chieh Chen
  • Income inequality and mobility of rural households in China from 2003 to 2006 / Wenkai Sun, Xianghong Wang, Chong-En Bai
  • Rural-urban income gap and agricultural growth in China: an empirical study on the provincial panel data, 1978-2010 / Yanyan Gao, Jianghuai Zheng, Maoliang Bu
  • Quantifying the benefits associated with the use of alternative marketing arrangements by U.S. farmers / Wu-Yueh Hu, Daniel Phaneuf, Xiaoyong Zheng
  • Assessing Korean Consumers’ Valuation for Domestic, Chinese, and US Rice: Importance of Country of Origin and Food Miles Information / Ji Yong Lee, Doo Bong Han, Rodolfo M, Jr. Nayga, Jong Min Yoon
  • Study on the survival of China agri-food export trade relationships / Dongwen Tian, Rui Li, Wei Yao, Li Huang
  • Local spillovers and durable adoption: evidence from durable consumptions in rural China / Zhao Rong, Yao Feng
  • Developing successful agriculture an Australian case study / Zhang-Yue Zhou, Chunlai Chen

Rice production, prices, imports and exports statistics + forecast / Economist Intelligence Unit

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecast of global rice consumption in 2013/14 is placed at 472m tonnes. While representing a slower rate of expansion when compared with the previous two years, growth of 1.5% year on year would still take world use to a new record, centred mainly on modest increases in much of Asia, and particularly India, against a background of comfortable supplies. This helps to compensate for limited growth prospects in China, where, despite the heavy imports of the past two years, consumption is expected to show little change in 2013/14 and to edge lower in future years. Moreover, with uptake in the world’s largest consumer set to fall as rising incomes lead to a further shift to more protein-rich diets, the expansion of world demand is likely to moderate in future years, but is still set to reach a record of 477m tonnes in 2014/15.

Rice: consumptiona
(m tonnes unless otherwise indicated; milled rice)
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
China 135.0 138.5 141.0 141.0 140.5
India 92.7 96.5 98.5 101.5 103.5
Indonesia 38.8 39.7 40.4 41.2 41.7
Other East & South Asia 119.1 120.5 122.0 123.5 124.8
Africa 23.2 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.5
Latin America 18.0 17.9 18.4 18.7 19.0
Others 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 20.9
Total 446.3 457.1 465.4 472.2 476.9
% change 1.7 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.0
a Local marketing years.
Sources: US Department of Agriculture (USDA); International Grains Council (IGC); The Economist Intelligence Unit.

 

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